Despite macroeconomic conditions in the multifamily sector, D-FW continues to have strong and growing fundamentals, leading the nation in population growth from 2022 to 2023. D-FW also trailed only Chicago for the most business relocation or expansion projects in 2023 as well.
Is there a megaregion in the US with a comparable growth trajectory to the Texas Triangle? In the five-year period from 2018 to 2023, Texas attracted 209 headquarters relocations, the most in the nation. Of those, 66 landed in Austin, 32 in D-FW and 25 in Houston.
Metro Area Population Growth July 2022 – July 2023 (Rankings) 1) Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX – 152,598 2) Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX – 139,789 7) Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX – 50,105 9) San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX – 48,071
“D-FW grew by the size of a large suburb last year. D-FW’s population now stands at 8.1 million, according to the estimates released Thursday that provide a first look at demographic changes across the country in 2023.”
We were hoping the first half of the year would exceed expectations since the bar was low starting the first of the year… this did not happen. The high interest rate environment has wreaked havoc on the transaction markets and the adjustment period between Buyers and Sellers has still not stabilized. It appears that the pause in interest rate hikes and eventual downward trend has been pushed back, stalling any sort of quick bounce back toward the activity we saw in 2021—2022.
Until we get some relief from these higher rates, cap rates will continue adjusting upwards and property values will continue declining. In addition to this there are other challenges the CRE industry faces, i.e. large increases in property taxes and insurance, increased bad debt, and slowing rent growth.
It looks like 2023 will end up being the transition year, where the CRE industry adjusts to this new higher interest rate environment.
Looking Forward We expect the 2nd half of this year to be more of the same with regards to sales activity “slow”, but thinking the pipelines for new transactions will get better toward the end of the year, setting us up for a better start to 2024.
In the meantime, while this adjustment period plays out, most owners are focused on operations and less concerned about Buying or Selling unless that “right opportunity” comes along. Those owners who have debt coming due will have their hands full trying to find replacement debt or facing the hard fact of bringing in additional equity or maybe selling in today’s market. On the buy side of things, there are still plenty of active Buyers who are looking for opportunities albeit with more conservative underwriting and revised expectations. Developers also face challenges as financing is much harder to get, pushing back many planned development deals.
Not everything is bad, there is still good news looking forward. Texas and the metroplex still lead the country in fundamentals with healthy job growth and continued inward migration that should keep apartment demand intact and stable.
Multi-family is still the preferred asset type and the metroplex is still the place to be.
Are there too many general partner syndicators and not enough investors? Within the last 10 years…we have observed a lot of apartment transactions closed with the syndication investment model. As you know, a syndication model is like flying in an airplane. Pilot and passengers both perform critical roles to make a flight successful. The pilots are in the front of the airplane- they are the general partners- they are putting the deals together and making the operational decisions. The passengers in the back of the airplane… they are the limited partners. They are the investors in the deals that bring the bulk of the equity. Today, we have too many pilots and not enough passengers. We need more passengers (equity investors) to run a successful airline (apartment syndication.) Listen to the investment sales team at Rowan Multifamily Advisors in Dallas. They chat about recently closed transactions and why investors are buying or selling.
2022 was going to have a hard time keeping up with the record performance of 2021 but we had a great start to the year, which ended up as a tale of two stories. The days of low interest rates, record transaction activity, too much capital chasing too few deals, record prices and a market with more demand for housing than supply, seemed to be in the rear-view mirror as the year progressed. It didn’t take long to realize that inflation was not transitory and that the Fed was going to have to increase interest rates to bring inflation in. What was not expected is the rate at which these increases would take place and toward the end of the year it became obvious that these rate increases were going to have a profound impact on CRE. Prior to the rate increases, many Buyers had committed to floating rate bridge loan debt with short maturities, which is still playing out. The amount of inventory now outpaces demand resulting in an increase in vacancy and a tapering off of the double-digit rent increases that were driving the market.
It takes time for the market to digest these changes and it appears as though many investors are taking the “wait and see” approach to future investments, hoping for a little more clarity as we move in to 2023.
2023 will have a much more cautious outlook for most, and the consensus seems to be less activity for both Buyers and Sellers in 2023. Having said this, multifamily is still the “darling” of real estate investments and DFW is still at the top of everyone’s list. Texas has so much to offer, and the latest statistics show that employment grew by over 5% in 2022 as we added over 650,000 jobs to the labor force, more than double the historical average. North Texas faired even better with 5.9% growth and over 230,000 jobs added to the labor force. For perspective, Texas far outpaced any other state in the country.
The wild card is whether or not we enter a recession and how long and deep. Most think any recession will be shallow and short lived and that activity in the 2nd half of the year will start to pick back up. The party’s not over yet, as Texas has too many good fundamentals in place that will fuel continued growth.
DALLAS – [August 15, 2022] – Kalterra Capital Partners is pleased to announce its second high-end, mutifamily development in Waxahachie with Rowan Properties. The Fitzgerald, a 184-unit currently under construction, is directly adjacent to Park Place Apartments, which Kalterra developed and sold to Rowan Properties in May 2021.
Building on the success of their previous partnership, Rowan Properties purchased The Fitzgerald from Kalterra during the pre-construction phase, making it a win-win for both parties.
“We are confident in the success and reputation of Kalterra Capital Partners and are excited to be working with them again,” said Mike Burch, Principal of Rowan Properties. “Waxahachie is a growing, vibrant market with strong demographics and a long-term future, and we expect The Fitzgerald to experience the same level of success as Park Place.”
The 7-acre site falls within the rapidly growing Ellis County submarket, located 30 miles south of the DFW Metroplex. Just east of Hwy 287 and directly adjacent to Waxahachie’s Sport Complex, the project will serve the growing demand for Class-A luxury apartments in the county.
“The Fitzgerald is another example of Kalterra’s commitment to bring design-forward, multifamily housing communities to areas within 30 minutes of metroplexes,” said Clint Nolen, managing partner and co-founder of Kalterra Capital Partners. “We’re thrilled to build on the experience from our previous multifamily development in Waxahachie and partner with Rowan Properties again to bring another premier development to this area.”
Like its predecessor, the new property will offer future residents nearby shopping and restaurants, recreation and employment opportunities. The Fitzgerald will consist of one- and two-bedroom units with quartz countertops and stainless-steel appliances. The property will include a luxury pool, grilling stations, a volleyball court, top of the line fitness center, dog spa and movie theatre/game room.
Kalterra Construction and the Brownstone Construction Group are collaborating on the development of The Fitzgerald, making this the fifth project the duo has worked on together. The goal for completion is Q2 2023.
“It is always a pleasure to partner with Kalterra Construction,” said Wil Brown, president of Brownstone Construction Ltd. “Their highly knowledgeable team and competitive leadership in this industry is unmatched. We look forward to having our fifth collaboration in the books.”
Kalterra Capital Partners
Kalterra Capital Partners is a Dallas-based private real estate company specializing in the ground-up development of upscale multifamily and mixed-use properties in Texas. The company is an emerging industry leader with a diverse team of disciplined, investor-focused partners aiming to deliver 30 communities by 2030.
